West Indies v England Second T20 Top Bat Tips: Pollard still underrated

West Indies v England
Sunday 23 January, 20:00
TV: live on BT Sport

Tops value

We were sweet on Kieron Pollard top scoring for West Indies in game one. Although confident yet wary of disappointment, what we didn’t expect was him not even getting close to having a hit.

For that reason it is slightly irksome to see him cut from 15/2 to 5/1 for top Windies runscorer. But we go in again. Why? For the simple reason that the 5/1 is not skinny enough in comparison to a win rate of nine in 31.

The pitch gives with one hand yet takes away with the other for the Pollard wager. On the one hand a troublesome surface of variable bounce means that wickets are always likely to fall and that a big score may not be required. On the other, though, a first-innings collapse like England’s is again on the cards.

For the latter we would understand why many would reckon the openers are value. This was discussed in our match preview.

Pollard is unlikely to be phased. This is a former home ground for him and he has fond memories. In 49 matches he averages a more than healthy 30 and strikes in the 140s.

The big man should know exactly what to expect from the surface. And his advice to his charges could assist in our wager. As in the Caribbean Premier League batters are advised to get set and build a platform at this venue, giving a hitter like Pollard the perfect set-up for a late assault. Fingers crossed.

To that end chancing Jason Holder at 13s, Fabian Allen at 22s and Odean Smith at 33s with Sportsbook are not mug wagers by any stretch. Smith was a fancy in the CPL but we do note that the first two have a bit more to their batting game.

With the ball, there is not a standout wager on win rates. We note that Akeal Hosein has shortened up for top bowler because of the excessive turn. He is 13/5. Holder won in game one. He seems to have brought Sunrisers’ form on this market where he was consistent winner. He is 11/4.

Top bat wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Pollard 9/31
Lewis 6/26
Simmons 4/23
Hetmyer 3 t/31
Pooran 3/25
Hope 2/4
Chase 1/3
King 1 t/14
Fletcher 1/12
Russell 1/20
McCoy 1/11

Top bowler wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Cottrell 6t/22
Holder 2 2/20
McCoy 4 1t/11
Thomas 3 2t/13
Walsh 3 1t/22
Paul 2t/7
Hosein 2 t/14
Allen 1 3t/20
Russell 1 2t/20
Shepherd 1/10
Smith 1/3

Tops value

There are no players to follow for top England bat or bowler using the win-rate mechanism. But it is worth pointing out some disappointing records.

With the top order blown away in the first match it was set up perfectly for an Eoin Morgan win. But his rate of one success in 33 is extraordinarily bad. His consistent poor form has been forgotten it seems after just one knock of note in the World Cup.

Tom Banton is also starting to have poor returns. At 4/1 you could make a case for it being a rick on batting order but not on the numbers.

Using the method described above, there’s nowt wrong with chancing Sam Billings at 15/2 or Liam Dawson at 20s. Chris Jordan, who thrashed three desperate sixes, won last time and goes off at 70/1.

Top bat wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Roy 5/22
Moeen 3/20
Livingstone 2/12
Vince 1/5
Banton 1/10
Morgan 1/33
Jordan 1/32
Rashid 0/32

Top bowler wins/matches last 2 ½ years
Jordan 5 2t/32
Rashid 5 6t/31
Mahmod 1 t/10

Author: wpadmin

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