Waste Management Phoenix Open Long Odds Golf Tips Stick With Swafford

After a barren spell for longshots on the PGA Tour we’ve now witnessed three outsiders in-a-row win – Hudson Swafford, Luke List and Tom Hoge – so I’ve gone stateside and to the Waste Management Phoenix Open for my first two selections.

As highlighted in the preview, five of the last six winners have won at least one major championship and the last seven winners all went off at a double-figure price but prior to that, outsiders had a reasonable little run so we’re perhaps due another winner at a juicy price.

In the 11 renewals between 2004 and 2014, the likes of Jonathan Kaye, J.B Holmes (twice!), Aaron Baddeley, Hunter Mahan, Mark Wilson, Kyle Stanley and Kevin Stadler all won the event when unfancied so although recent history is against us, it’s not that long ago that this was very much an event for outsiders. I’ve gone for a couple with very straightforward claims…

Pick Putnam to contend again

Holmes was a monstrous price when he first won here and he was a big outsider two years later when he got the better of the three-time winner, Phil Mickelson, in a playoff.

In addition to Lefty and JB, Mark Calcavecchia, Vijay Singh, Hideki Matsuyama and the defending champ, Brooks Koepka, have also won the title for a second time this century and course form stands up brilliantly at TPC Scottsdale. So much so, that a previous top-ten finish here is almost an essential prerequisite. Both selections tick that box.

Having won the Barracuda Championship in Reno back in 2018 and having finished inside the top-ten at the American Express in 2020, Andrew Putnam had already demonstrated his liking for desert golf when he finished seventh here 12 months ago after a pair of missed cut the event and he arrives here this time around in blindingly obvious good form.

Andrew Putnam (720).jpg

Putnam backed up a decent 27th in the Sony Open and a top-12 in the American Express with a sixth-placed finish last week at Pebble Beach but he’ll be disappointed with his finish. Tied for the lead with a round to go, Putnam was matched at a low of 5.85/1 when he birdied the first on Sunday, but he lost his way after that, eventually posting a one-over-par 73 to finish tied for sixth.

Much like last week’s winner, Tom Hoge, Putnam has the straightforward but solid combination of both course and current form and at odds of 180.0179/1 he looks to have been considerably overlooked.

Back 1 ½ u Andrew Putnam @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Stick with Swafford

As highlighted in the preview, the recent American Express, staged in the La Quinta desert in California, correlates very nicely with this event so I’m more than happy to take a chance on Hudson Swafford at in excess of 300.0299/1 given he won that title for a second time just three weeks ago.

Swafford missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open a week after his victory but this is a very different examination and I’m more than happy to ignore that weekend off.

The three-time PGA Tour winner finished ninth in this event two years ago but that could and should have been a better. He sat tied for third and just two off the lead with a round to go before a 74 on Sunday saw him slip out of the places.

With the same very obvious combo of course and current form, Swafford is simply too big at 310.0309/1.

Back 1u Hudson Swafford @ 310.0309/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Promising Dane to be inspired by Hojgaard’s win

When last week’s winner, Nicolai Hojgaard, won for the first time on the DP World Tour, at the Italian Open, he did so one week after his twin brother, Rasmus, had collected his third trophy at the European Masters.

With the score now at 3-2 in favour of Rasmus, Nicolai is looking to even the score as the brothers return to Al Hamra for the Ras al Khaimah Classic and after his dominate display last week, Nicolai understandably heads the market but it’s another extremely promising young Dane that’s caught my attention at a juicy price – last year’s Challenge Tour Rankins winner, Marcus Helligkilde.

The 25-year-old missed the cut last week but his opening 75 was always going to make it tough and his 68 in round two is definitely something to build on.

Helligkilde won three times on the Challenge Tour and two of the three came in low scoring events like this one. He reached 23-under-par at the Finnish Challenge and -25 at the Swiss Challenge so a low scoring event like this week’s should suit him.

At five years the Hojgaard’s senior, Helligkilde has developed at a different rate and his ceiling is probably not as high as either Rasmus or Nicolai’s but he’s still a class act with a big future and he looks worth chancing here at a juicy price.

Back 1 ½ u Marcus Helligkilde @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

I’ll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Author: wpadmin

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