New Scottish Westminster poll, Opinium 15 – 22 Dec (changes vs 3 – 8 Sep):
SNP ~ 48% (-3)
Lab ~ 22% (+5)
Con ~ 17% (-4)
LD ~ 7% (+2)
Others 6%, tables not yet available for breakdown. pic.twitter.com/NzEhKH4agP
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) December 26, 2021
In 2017 the difference between the Tories continuing in office or a rainbow alliance was the performance of the Scottish Tories, in 1992 John Major doesn’t win a majority with Scottish Tories, Scotland is a very important part of the fabric of the Union, so in close elections pay even more attention to Scotland.
The SNP will be happy with this poll, they are polling 3 points higher than they did in the 2019 general election, an astonishing performance for a party that is approaching its fifteenth anniversary in power at Holyrood. With the Tories collapsing by 8 points from their 2019 performance Labour appear to be the beneficiaries which should help them recover from their recent nadir in Scotland. Any sustained recovery in Scotland should help Starmer and Labour in the longer term.
As for the Tories, you cannot but help feel that if the Nats were to create a Prime Minister best designed to help achieve Scottish independence he would look and sound a lot like Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.