New England Patriots outside linebacker Matt Judon (9) celebrates after defeating the Cleveland Browns in an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)
The AFC-leading Titans visit New England as the Patriots seek their 6th straight win
Betting Record: 0-1 ML; 3-5 ATS; 1-1 O/U; -6.39 units
Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Six weeks into the NFL season, the 2-4 New England Patriots were staring at a potential lost campaign.
Now? A win in Week 12 against the Tennessee Titans, with another result going their way, they could be the top seed in the AFC.
That’s a perch currently belonging to the Titans, who will try to bounce back from an ugly loss to Houston and pick up their third straight win against the Patriots.
New England, surging with a 5-game winning streak, is a 7-point favorite.
It all gets underway Sunday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Kickoff is at 1pm ET, and the game can be seen live on CBS.
Titans vs Patriots Odds
O 43.5 (-110)
New England Patriots
U 43.5 (-110)
Odds as of November 27 at DraftKings.
The betting public is loving the home side, with 67% of the bets placed against the spread and 88% of the moneyline wagers on the Patriots.
Weather shouldn’t be a factor Sunday: it will be a brisk 35 degrees, but will be sunny with a mix of clouds.
Injury Issues for Titans
It’s a miracle the Titans have not folded under the rash of injuries they’ve suffered this year, let alone lead the entire AFC more than halfway through the season. Another parade of injuries dot the report for Tennessee.
Derrick Henry (foot surgery) remains sidelined, and he’s joined by AJ Brown (chest), guard Nate Davis (concussion), linebackers Rashaan Evans (ankle) and David Long (hamstring), running back Jeremy McNichols (concussion) and defensive lineman Teair Tart (ankle).
Mike Vrabel says he said “take the over” when @CollinsworthPFF told him the NFL record for most players used in one year is 84. 😂
The Titans have used 82 so far this year… #Titans
— 104-5 The Zone (@1045TheZone) November 15, 2021
Tennesse has already used an NFL-high 82 different players this year, and only a severe act of healthiness will stop them from smashing the mark of 84, held by the 2020 49ers and the 2019 Dolphins.
Since 1993, there have been just six teams who have needed to use at least 80 players in a season, and the previous five all finished with a losing record. One more win guarantees Tennessee finishes above .500.
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Multiple Contributors to Pats’ Success
You don’t reel off an NFL-best five wins in a row without getting contributions from every part of the lineup.
Matthew Judon was being held and still got the sack. pic.twitter.com/X7zusX2i4I
— Keith Smith (@Ksmith401) November 19, 2021
New England boasts the top scoring defense in the league, holding teams to 16.1 points per game, while ranking both top-10 against the pass and the run.
Stud offseason pickup Matthew Judon is tied for third in sacks at 10.5, part of a top-10 pass rush. Their work up front has definitely helped in the secondary, as the Patriots lead the league with 18 interceptions.
What a throw by Mac Jones 🤯🔥
Mac Jones with his 2nd TD 😁🔥pic.twitter.com/Y38i4j686Q
— Alabama DieHards (@DiehardsAlabama) November 14, 2021
Offensively, Mac Jones is playing his best stretch of football, and is the only rookie QB making any impact from that highly touted 2021 class. During the streak, he’s completed 68.9% of his passes, good for 1,068 yards. He’s thrown seven touchdowns to just two interceptions.
The end result is a team that’s been averaging 35 points a game this fun-run while holding teams to just 10, forcing 13 turnovers in the process.
Tennessee vs New England: What To Watch For
The Titans released Adrian Peterson after three games, but the doesn’t mean Tennessee is giving up on the run . In fact, the one good sign in the loss to the Texans was the fact they rushed for a team-high 103 yards, the first time they’ve cracked the century mark without Henry.
D’Onta Foreman getting the Titans into Texans territory again pic.twitter.com/pQiHlGsLEr
— Rivers McCown (@riversmccown) November 21, 2021
They’re going to go with the less heralded duo of Dontrell Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman. The Titans still rank fourth in the NFL in rushing at 129 yards per game.
The Patriots could be down players as well, but their injury report looks more promising than their opponent. Nick Folk (knee) has been on the injury report for weeks, but he hasn’t missed a game.
Tight ends Jonnu Smith (shoulder) and Hunter Henry (neck) and running backs Damien Harris (neck) and Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) are all questionable.
Ryan Tannehill with the Titans:
2019: 22 Pass TD, 6 INT
2020: 33 Pass TD, 7 INT
2021: 13 Pass TD, 12 INT*
*most in the NFL pic.twitter.com/M8k3OgILor
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 22, 2021
Can Ryan Tannehill bounce back? He was disastrous in Week 11 against the Texans, throwing four interceptions. The Patriots’ defense is a massive upgrade from Houston, allowing 20+ points just once in their last five, while allowing only 169.5 passing yards and 88 rushing yards per game.
Titans vs Patriots Pick
The one stat that keeps jumping off the screen is the Titans are 5-0 as the betting underdog. It’s tied for tops in the NFL with Arizona. That resiliency and bounce-back ability has to be taken into consideration here.
There’s so much at stake: a Patriots win coupled with a Ravens loss, and New England perches itself atop the AFC.
Tennessee is 2-1 since Henry went down. Get by the Pats, and they’ve got the Jaguars and Steelers on tap, both winnable, with the potential of Henry getting close to return.
These are two good teams, and I don’t think a team wins by a TD here.
Pick: Titans +7 (1.5 units to win 1.36 units)