The Conservative Party’s Johnson problem –

Keir Starmer was substantially more well-regarded than the Labour party in his first year (although a part of this will be because he was relatively unknown for some of this period). However, he is now generally regarded in similar terms as his party

— YouGov (@YouGov) January 28, 2022

Why the headline VI figures might not be telling the full picture

One of the reasons I felt confident the Conservative party would do better than the voting intention polls for the 2015 general election suggested was David Cameron’s leadership ratings, various other supplementaries, one of which was the polling that repeatedly showed that David Cameron was consistently better rated the Conservative Party whereas as Ed Miliband was at best a non drag on the Labour party and at worst a drag on the Labour Party.

Looking at the polling above you have to wonder if we might see a 2015 redux because of this polling metric. Because Boris Johnson has turned Downing Street into Clowning Street you get the feeling Boris Johnson is going to be a drag on the Conservative party for as long he remains leader and probably the longer he stays the more damaging he becomes to the party.

It is clear Sir Keir Starmer has used all that lawyerly brilliance to detoxify the Labour party after the stench of Jeremy Corbyn which means it is a terrible time for the Conservative party to start retoxifying itself.

But there’s other supplementaries which should cheer up Labour and frighten the Conservatives. Ipsos MORI have found that ‘a majority disagree the current govt deserves to be re-elected. Up 10 pts from Sept.’ Then there’s this which also makes me feel this isn’t just the usual mid term blues governments recover from.

This is important too. When Labour were getting 8-10pt leads under Miliband, a big majority still thought Lab weren’t ready for Government. Now it’s an even split.

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) January 28, 2022

With evidence, particularly in Chesham & Amersham and North Shropshire that anyone but the Conservatives (ABC) tactical voting is back, Conservatives like myself remember how bad ABC voting was at the 1997 general election and subsequent elections until David Cameron stopped it being such an impediment. As I noted on Thursday the latest Ipsos MORI poll had Labour, the Lib Dems, and Greens outpolling the Conservatives 2:1, coupled with the earlier finding that a majority of the public disagree that the government deserves to be reelected then the party might be headed for an epochal defeat to rival 1997 and 1945.

If the Conservative party want to avoid (a seismic) defeat at the next election the Conservative party needs parliamentary Conservative party to stop having so many catchfarts in it and oust Boris Johnson as soon as possible, by a process of osmosis he is infecting the party. Based on past polling precedents the Labour position might be a lot better than the headline voting intention figures suggest whilst Johnson remains Prime Minister and maybe even if he is replaced before the next general election.

Right now the Conservative party is still fumbling with its flies not sure what to do with its Johnson whist Labour are enjoying their post-Corbyn cigarette thanks to Starmer.


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Author: wpadmin

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