Take a leap of faith with Priests for Down Royal action

A busier day on Tuesday for punters with a good mix of two jumps’ cards at Leicester and Down Royal – with the latter track staging two each-way races with 16 and 18 runners respectively, and the all-weather action continues to roll on with Southwell holding a Class 2 0-105 as their feature alongside Lingfield.

The longest traveller yesterday from ‘R’ Beckett was flagged up and Allowed made the journey worthwhile from Kempton scoring at 3/1. It was Beckett’s first winner of the calendar year. Charlie Hills was also highlighted as a man in form and his sole runner finished second at a BSP of 16.03.

More stats and angles are coming up for today, and it’s building up to an interesting week with the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park on Thursday, and if Chris’s Dream turns up, hopefully I will have a bit more luck backing him than I did in the Becher. Damn wind. Cheltenham Trials’ Day and a super Saturday card at Doncaster await, but that’s all to come.

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

15:00 Lingfield – One Day 40/1 into 18/1 on the Sportsbook
13:20 Leicester – Green Or Black 11/1 into 15/2 on the Sportsbook
14:20 Leicester – Greenrock Abbey 12/1 into 17/2 on the Sportsbook
17:00 Southwell – Double Dare You 33/1 into 22/1 on the Sportsbook
13:10 Down Royal – Viceregent 28/1 into 18/1 on the Sportsbook
14:10 Down Royal – Faith Du Val 28/1 into 16/1 on the Sportsbook

The market says LAY!

Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?

16:00 Lingfield – Mamasaidknockyouout 12/1 out to 20/1 on the Sportsbook.

Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

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Quite a few well-stocked cards for Tuesday given us the extra value, and two at Southwell paying the bonus places are the 16:30 1m Handicap and the nightcap at 20:00 with 12 runners in the sprint over 5f.

Trainer Mick Appleby, so often the “go-to” man at Southwell on the old Fibresand has a surprisingly low strike-rate at the new track this year with just one winner from 26 runners. On the plus side, Mick is six shy of a century of winners over the last five years.

The 16:00 1m2f Handicap at Lingfield provides the Extra Place Special and it looks wide open. Richard Hannon is a trainer hitting his winter straps with two winners yesterday and six from his last 18 at 33%. His filly Mamasaidknockuout was a drifter however last night on the Sportsbook from 12/1 out to 20/1.

Clearly not fans of LL Cool J!

Jockey Christian Howarth rides Marco Botti’s Amalfi Salsa 5.59/2 and he’s showing some talent of late with four winners from his last 16 mounts. Not bad for a youngster who took up the game late having failed to make the grade as a footballer at Cambridge.

I don’t know too much about conditional Lewis Dobb, but he’s had two successes from his last five rides at 40% and he’s on outsider Scattercash 15.014/1 in the 13:20 2m4f Handicap Hurdle and he delivered Hasankey for Laura Morgan two weeks ago in a novice, and he teams up with Morgan again.

Over for Down Royal, trainer Sam Curling is currently outgunning the big duo Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins with a strike-rate of 29% with 6-21. One of those was Bonnie Kellie eight days ago and she turns out quickly again for the 13:40. She hacked up Punchestown by 5L and has gone up 10lb, and she is one of the shortest prices on the card.

There’s also a trainer in that race called Shane Ryder. He has Getaway Katie, and she could really make it Happy Tuesdays.

Horses for courses

This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks and could be in with a chance today.

13:00 Lingfield – Battle Of Marathon 7.06/1 has won here three times (21%).
14:30 Lingfield – Big Time Maybe 4.3100/30 has won here twice (14%) and Knockout Blow 11.010/1 has won here twice (13%).
15:00 Lingfield – Hurricane Alert 101.0100/1 has won here twice (12%).
15:20 Leicester – Waikiki Waves has won here twice 4.57/2 (100%).
16:20 Leicester – Applesandpierres 17.016/1 has won here twice (100%).

Weighted to go well

“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

13:00 Lingfield – Battle Of Marathon 7.06/1 has won off 86 and runs from 71. Koeman 6.05/1 has won off 95 and runs from 76.
16:00 Lingfield – Mamasaidknockuout 21.020/1 has won off 63 and runs from 53.
13:20 Leicester – Lostnfound 26.025/1 has won off 95 and runs from 85.
16:20 Leicester – Applesandpierres 17.016/1 has won off 121 and runs from 102.
19:30 Southwell – Zapper Cass 15.014/1 has won off 82 and runs from 68.
20:00 Southwell – Ornate 9.08/1 has won off 97 and runs from 82.

Form Watch

This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.

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After a blank day of jumping, Leicester’s seven-race card offers up a few novices’ races over hurdles and fences, and the best on ratings is the 15:50 Novices’ Handicap Chase with all five in the field showing form last time out (with three winning).

The Skeltons rule the roost at the Midlands venue with Dan on 31% over the last five years and brother Harry 13-40 at 33%.

Their three runners on the card all have strong chances and are short in the betting. Go Steady 3.02/1 in the 14:20 Novices’ Hurdle at Leicester won smoothly over CD in December and needs to bounce back after not staying at Ascot last time over 3m.

Walk In Clover 1.68/13 will be ultra-short as she makes her debut for the yard having left Tom Weston, and it doesn’t look a particularly strong mares’ event in the 14:50. Tokey Dokey 2.01/1 is the 8yo on the improve and he bolted up last time by 13L at Market Rasen, and as a Gold Well, he might be one of the quickest out of that jumps’ sire as they normally want a trip.

Several jockeys at Down Royal on Tuesday are worth flagging up, as the highly-talented Jordan Gainford is the leading rider at the track this term with 4-17, and I like the chances of his mount Echoes Of Family 4.67/2 – who I have put up in my Daily Racing Multiple column. She deserves a win and has been consistent at a low grade, and her stamina could come into play late on.

I just hope the reserve doesn’t turn up in that 15:10 Handicap Chase over 2m4f. She is Gainford’s only ride on the card.

For fans of backing shorties, Godolphin’s Charlie Appleby sends out Blue Trail 1.51/2 who looks to have a straightforward task following a nice introduction on debut last time behind his stablemate. His dam is a full sister to Dubai World Cup winner Monterosso, and Appleby’s horses out in Meydan have been doing rather well on the prize money front. The near £4000 for the 17:00 Southwell should be making it’s way to the Newmarket kitty.

Furthest traveller

Soi Dao is the longest traveller on the Lingfield card for Rod Millman, making the 173 mile journey from Devon. Although his youngster is 33/1 on the Sportsbook in the 14:00 at Lingfield.

Two trainers for Leicester are long-distance makers. Harry Fry’s White Hart Lady 4.57/2 in the 13:20 at Leicester is looking to back up the Fontwell win last time and justify the 188 miles. Even further away is Borders trainer Paul Robson’s Just Don’t Know 6.05/1 in the following 13:50.

The “Diesel Double” on those two pays a decent 26/1 on the Sportsbook.

Keith Dalgleish is another Scottish handler on the move, and his Royal Advice 10.09/1 will clock up 286 miles for the Southwell 19:30. First-time headgear could do the trick for him.

Race of the day

For the pick of today’s action, I’m off to Down Royal, and the last time I was in Northern Ireland I was ordering banana cocktails in a Belfast bar on a stag weekend, so at least my head will be clearer in watching the 14:40 Novices’ Chase over 2m.

This looks a fair race with a few potential improvers. Henry De Bromhead’s mare Alice Avril 5.04/1 has been slightly disappointing since winning by 6L at Roscommon in August – where she enjoyed some decent ground. Her keenness was less evident, and she jumped well which is atypical from a De Bromhead chaser. However, she has been beaten at Tramore and Sligo since, and has been turned over in-running at 1.121/8 and 1.625/8.

She wore a hood last time on her comeback for the season at Naas where she was kept wide, but I am far from convinced about her lasting home at a track you really need to stay in a finish. I would be keen to throw in a lay of around 1.171/6 to 1.330/100 in-play on the Keep Bets. HDB has only had two winners at the track this season from 14 runners at a strike-rate of just 14%.

Stuart Crawford’s Now Where Or When 4.57/2 who only cost 3,000 euros and is a fairly useful horse, proving bargains can be had. Much like the French jewellery maker Lalique, who used cheap materials to make very expensive products. We’re not quite in Lalique territory yet, but he could have a nice 2m handicap pot in him down the line.

He was rated as a 125 novice hurdler with form up to 2m4f and the better ground could play to his strengths even though he won on soft at Fairyhouse last time out on his second outing over fences. Conditions helped him on that occasion and the fast pace utilised his stamina, but he might be taken out of his comfort zone early on as there is plenty of pace on with not only Alice Avril, but also The Priests Leap.

Again, for a trade, you could use a lay-to-back. At Fairyhouse he hit 17.016/1 in-play from a BSP of 4.91. I can see a similar set-up and will throw in a 20.019/1 to get matched.

The outright bet has to be The Priests Leap 5.04/1, who produced a decent jumping display last time out in a Limerick novice. He gave it a great shot from the front despite the fact he was pestered by a loose horse. His jumping was sound and he is quite aggressive, and with the slight drop down in trip to the bare 2m, he should give us a run for our money.

The tongue strap is on, and he’s well-related as the dam is a sister to the brilliant Black Jack Ketchum. His trainer Arthur Moore commented that he can “get wired” on the racetrack following his 11L success at Clonmel over hurdles in the past, so I am expecting the tongue tie with the hood to calm him down a little.

Tony Calvin’s thoughts on Doncaster

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Tony has taken an early look at Doncaster’s feature Skybet Chase on Saturday and is with a 20/1 shot.

Timeform offer up three of their best on the all-weather

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Read Timeform tips here.

Andrew Asquith is once again in the Timeform hotseat to preview the Southwell evening card, and he is strong on the case of Prince Abu alongside his next best and each-way pick.

Final Word

There’s a 14-year-running today in Ulster called Capture The Drama, who will be taking in his 99th race in his career today for trainer Aengus King – a remarkable effort considering 75 of those have been over fences with form figures of (wait for it):

50F55P/PP715/814212141615457/P0PP34000719PP9P/
01P0600670P157873025P365/4P779P4P40/63PP6PR3P-4626474382753.

While there are a few ‘P’s’ there, I couldn’t find a fall over fences.

King has wonderfully gone for the blinkers first time today, and yet he’s only an 8/1 chance who retains all his zest for the game. While his last win may have come when bootcut jeans were all the rage, he has won eight times over the birch and earned nearly £87,000, so we wish him all the best and applaud his longevity. That takes some doing at any level.

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And amidst all the hoopla from Saturday, and quite rightly justified with the epic duel that Russian poet Ivan Turgenev would have been proud of, Yala Enki was still doing the business by winning the Portman Cup at Taunton from a mark of 159 under Bryony Frost. His third Portman Cup too.

He landed a race in France in 2014, an Exeter novice in 2015, a Lanzarote in 2016 and plenty afterwards too. His trainer Paul Nicholls said he he just loves jumping and galloping, which is a fine reflection of his career at the grand age of 12, and he’s still showing those young whipper-snappers how to do it.

Bravo Yala Enki.

Author: wpadmin

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