Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks to pass during the first half of an NFL divisional round playoff football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 23, 2022, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
The Bills and Chiefs are -700 co-favorites to win the 2023 Super Bowl
The Texans are the longest shots at +18000
The Super Bowl odds for all 32 NFL teams can be found below with analysis
While this season is not quite over yet as the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals meet in Super Bowl 56 on Sunday night, odds to win next season’s Super Bowl have already posted.
Opening 2023 Super Bowl Winner Odds
Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Rams
Green Bay Packers
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles Chargers
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
Las Vegas Raiders
New York Giants
New York Jets
Odds as of February 13th at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have opened as +700 co-favorites. The Chiefs beat the Bills 42-36 in overtime in a classic AFC divisional round playoff game before eliminated by the Bengals 27-24 in OT in the AFC Championship Game.
At +700, the Bills and Chiefs have an implied win probability of 12.5% to capture next year’s Super Bowl. Betting $100 on either team would pay $700 on a winning ticket for a net return of $600.
i broke down the end of the Bills vs Chiefs game pic.twitter.com/JbyXQw6kks
— Mike Camerlengo (@MCamerlengo) January 24, 2022
The NFC teams with the best Super Bowl odds are the Dallas Cowboys and Rams at +1200, which they give them implied win probabilities of 7.69%. A $100 winning wager on the Cowboys or Rams would pay $1,200 for a net of $1,100.
The Rams got to the Super Bowl by beating the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in the NFC Championship Game. The Cowboys lost to the 49ers 23-17 in the divisional round.
Van Jefferson with the low-key 126 air yards in the NFC Championship game.
3 targets of 20+ air yards.
Just. Needs. One. pic.twitter.com/vFWwlEeCML
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) February 8, 2022
The longest shots on the board are the Houston Texans at +18000. The Texans finished 4-13 this season after a 1-8 start then fired first-year coach David Culley and replaced him by promoting defensive coordinator Lovie Smith.
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Bills, Chiefs Co-Favorites
The Bills and Chiefs played a game for the ages last month and it resonated with the oddsmakers. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs went 14-6 and won their sixth straight AFC West title while the Bills ended with a 12-7 record and their second AFC East title in a row.
The Chiefs were fourth in the NFL in scoring in the regular season with an average of 28.2 points a game. Kansas City should be every bit as explosive next season with quarterback Patrick Mahomes running an offense that includes wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.
The @Chiefs made @PatrickMahomes their starter in 2018.
53 touchdowns later, he was Offensive Player of the Year. (by @surface)
📺: #NFLHonors — Thursday 9pm ET on ABC & NFL Network pic.twitter.com/BezLBKSbdz
— NFL (@NFL) February 8, 2022
A defense that was eighth in points allowed with 21.4 a game came on strong following a shaky start to the season in which the Chiefs lost four of their first seven games. However, safety Tyrann Mathieu becomes a free agent after making the Pro Bowl in each of his three seasons in Kansas City.
The Bills have never won a Super Bowl but the those setting the odds believe that can change next season by listing them as co-favorites. This season, the Bills led the league in scoring defense (17.0) and were third in points scored (28.4)
Josh Allen leads a high-powered offense and has plenty of targets to chose from, including wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox. However, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll must be replaced after being hired by the New York Giants as head coach.
Top 10 Reasons We Love Josh Allen: pic.twitter.com/eaGJYAw7Ts
— Circling The Wagons Podcast (@CTWpod) February 12, 2022
Defensive ends Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison and defensive tackle Harrison Phillips are eligible for free agency.
Ravens Up, Steelers Down
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens in overtime in the regular-season finale. The win pushed the Steelers into the playoffs and kept the Ravens out of the postseason.
Yet the Ravens have +1900 odds to win the 2023 Super Bowl, the same as given the Bengals. The Steelers, meanwhile, are longshots at +7000.
The oddsmakers clearly feel the Steelers will have a hard time winning next fall after going just 9-8-1 this season. Quarterback play is the biggest concern after Ben Roethlisberger retired following 18 seasons with the Steelers in the aftermath of a season in which they averaged just 20.2 points to rank 21st in the league.
Ben Roethlisberger says goodbye to Pittsburgh. What a scene. pic.twitter.com/z0ITNie2V9
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 4, 2022
The Steelers are left with Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins and Josh Dobbs as the QBs on their roster.
The Ravens wound up with an 8-9 record after ending a season wrecked by injuries with six straight losses. However, the Ravens have the 2019 NFL MVP in quarterback Lamar Jackson and a defense filled with star-level talent.
2 Years Ago Lamar Jackson Won MVP 😢🐐 #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/DjhNz2ji1t
— TRUZZZ ✞ (@brandonleuschel) February 10, 2022
Thus, the pros expect Baltimore to bounce back next season.
Early 2023 Super Bowl Picks
It is hard to fault the Chiefs and Bills being co-favorites. Both have deep rosters, fine coaches, and creative general managers.
The Bills seem poised to finally break through and win it all next season. They have the franchise quarterback in Allen to win a championship and should be plenty motivated following the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs.
So even at the low odds of +700, Buffalo is the play here.
If you’re looking for more of a value play, though, the New England Patriots look good at +2800. Bill Belichick got them back to the playoffs following a one-year hiatus this season and quarterback Mac Jones seems poised to build on a fine rookie season.