Oklahoma vs Baylor Opening Odds

Caleb Williams celebrating with Lincoln Riley on the Oklahoma sideline

Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams (13) celebrates with head coach Lincoln Riley after a touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game against TCU, Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021, in Norman, Okla. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

No. 8 Oklahoma opened as a six-point road favorite at Baylor at noon ET, Saturday, in Waco
No. 12 Baylor is 5-0 ATS at home
Oklahoma is FanDuel’s fourth choice (+1400) to win the national title

No. 8 Oklahoma (9-0), 5-0 Big 12) is six-point road favorite in a Big 12 game against Baylor at noon on Saturday in Waco. Despite their relatively low ranking in the first CFP poll, the Sooners are FanDuel’s fourth choice to win the national championship at +1400.

No. 12 Baylor (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) had a three-game winning streak broken in a 30-28 loss at TCU last Saturday, the Horned Frogs’ first game in 21 seasons without coach Gary Patterson.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Opening Odds


Oklahoma Sooners
-6 (-110)
Over 64 (-110)

Baylor Bears
+6 (-110)
Under 64 (-110)

Odds from DraftKings on Nov. 7

Oklahoma is coming off a bye after beating Texas Tech 52-21 on Oct. 30, a game in which true freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed completed 23 of 30 passes for 402 yards and six touchdowns in his third career start.

The Sooners are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after a bye. They most recently failed to cover in a 27-13 home victory over Baylor last Dec. 5 as a 23.5-point favorite.

2021 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker

Booming Sooner

It is hard to overestimate the boost freshman Caleb Williams has given the Oklahoma offense since he became the No. 1 quarterback in the second half of the 55-48 victory over Texas, in which he triggered a comeback from a 28-7 deficit with a 66-yard touchdown run.

Since replacing preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Spencer Rattler, Williams has passed for 875 yards and 10 touchdowns against one interception in starts against TCU, Kansas and Texas Tech. He also has rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns in those games.

Williams accounted for five touchdowns in his first start against TCU on Oct. 16, throwing for 295 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 66 yards and another score.

Williams has thrown 14 touchdown passes and one interception and is ranked No. 2 in the FBS in passing efficiency behind Coastal Carolina’s Grayson McCall, who did not play last week because of an upper body injury that coach Jamey Chadwell called a “long-term thing.”

Now or Never, Part 1

After falling to TCU, Baylor faces a de facto elimination game against the Sooners in the Big 12 race.

The top two teams in the one-division Big 12 will meet in the league title game, a format adopted after both one-loss Baylor and one-loss TCU were excluded from the 2014 CFP Final Four when some committee members cited the lack of a true conference champion as a reason for the snub.

The Bears have already lost to No. 11 Oklahoma State (8-1, 5-1), which will play Oklahoma in the final game of the regular season.

Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon passed for 214 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Horned Frogs, and his second pick with 63 seconds remaining sealed the loss. TCU quarterback Chandler Morris burned the Bears for 461 yards passing.

Common Opponents

Oklahoma and Baylor have played four common foes in Kansas, Texas, TCU, and West Virginia. The Sooners have beaten all four and are 2-2 ATS. Baylor is 3-1 straight up and ATS against that group.

Even with Baylor’s loss, the aggregate point margin for the Sooners and Bears in the four games is identical, plus-10.8 points per game. Other numbers skew toward Baylor. The Bears have gained an average of 6.5 more yards than the Sooners and given up an average of 50.3 yards yards fewer against those four.

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By the Numbers

Oklahoma is 4-5 ATS, 1-2 on the road this season. Their only road cover came when Kennedy Brooks ran 33 yards for a touchdown with three seconds remaining in their victory over Texas as a 4-point favorite. Oklahoma has covered three of its last four.

The Sooners are 8-2 straight and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against Baylor in the series; 3-2 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their last five in Waco.

Oklahoma is fifth in the FBS in scoring with an average of 42.9 points game. Baylor is averaging 36.3. The Bears are eighth in rushing with 230.9 yards per game, and Abram Smith (1,055) is one of 10 1,000-yard rushers in the FBS.

The line is likely to move toward the visitor, although recent trends suggest it should go the other way.

Author: wpadmin

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