Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) celebrates his third goal of the game with Auston Matthews (34) in the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Detroit Red Wings Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Washington Capitals on Monday, February 28th
The Maple Leafs are coming off a 10-goal outburst against the Detroit Red Wings
Read below for Maple Leafs vs Capitals odds, predictions, and best NHL pick
A quiet Monday night in the NHL includes a must-watch matchup featuring two of the best goal scorers in the league as Auston Matthews brings his Toronto Maple Leafs to the US capital to battle Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals Odds
7:30 pm ET
Toronto Maple Leafs
O 6 (-120)
February 28th, 2022
U 6 (+100)
Odds as of Feb. 27th at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting lines opened with this game set up as virtual pick’em, but the Maple Leafs are now -130 road favorites on the moneyline.
Toronto has historically struggled in Washington, with a horrendous 7-19 record in their last 26 visits to DC. Even with their porous recent history in Washington, the favored Maple Leafs have an implied win probability of 56.52% in this upcoming contest.
Why? The reason that most stands out is the Capitals’ terrible home record as detailed below.
Capitals Bad Betting Value at Home
For some odd reason, the Capitals have really struggled in their own barn this season, especially in the new year where they are 2-7-1 and winless in their last five. As of Sunday, Washington was tied with the 11th-most points in the NHL, but were 22nd in the league when it comes to winning percentage on home ice.
As a result, the Capitals have plummeted in the Stanley Cup odds; they were hovering around +1500 throughout November but are now at +3000 to win it all. They’ve scored just a single goal in each of their last two games.
No stick. No problem. #WSHvsPHI | @FlyersCharities pic.twitter.com/wp14AiFquC
— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) February 26, 2022
The Caps will need Ovechkin and company to find their offense if they hope to notch their first win at home in over a month, but their opponent on Monday might be the perfect tonic for them to find the back of the net.
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Trends Point to Maple Leafs Great Betting Value on the the Over
Many people who were checking the NHL scores on Saturday night thought they were seeing something wrong when glancing at the Maple Leafs and Red Wings game. The final? 10-7! That’s not a typo. The Leafs were able to add a field goal to their touchdown to outscore the Wings in the highest-scoring NHL game in over a decade.
The Maple Leafs defeated the Red Wings on Saturday, 10-7.
It made for the most combined goals in a game since the Jets beat the Flyers 9-8 on Oct. 27, 2011.
In the 95-year rivalry between the 2 original 6 teams, the total is second only to an 11-7 Leafs win on March 17, 1946. pic.twitter.com/F0ptAu8Iql
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) February 27, 2022
This game toppled the over/under with just the goals scored in the 3rd period alone! The Blue and White have the 4th best offense in the league and when you combine that with increasingly unsteady goaltending from Jack Campbell, they’ve hit the over in 70% of their last 30 games (21-7-2).
It also helps hitting the over when you have the favorite in the Rocket Richard Trophy odds, Auston Matthews, bagging goals for you almost every game. Matthews began February as the co-favorite to end the season as the league’s top scorer with odds of +250 while his Washington counterpart, Ovechkin began the month with odds of +275.
NHL 5-on-5 goal leaders this season:
1. Auston Matthews: 23
T2. Filip Forsberg: 19
T2. Kyle Connor: 19
T4. Dylan Larkin: 18
T4. Andrew Mangiapane: 18
T6. Michael Bunting: 16
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) February 27, 2022
While the other half of the Leafs dynamic duo, Mitch Marner, stole the show with a four goal, six point performance on Saturday, Matthews four point night moved him into fourth in the league’s scoring race as his Hart Trophy odds have shortened significantly to +440 from +1300 at the beginning of the month.
Maple Leafs vs Capitals Recent Results
TOR 3 – WAS 4 (OT)
WAS 4 – TOR 3
TOR 2 – WAS 3
TOR 6 – WAS 3
WAS 2 – TOR 4
Maple Leafs vs Capitals Pick & Prediction
Both these teams have been really inconsistent of late which makes this game a tough matchup to handicap. While Toronto has been scoring a ton, the usually explosive Capitals have hit the under in four of their last five games.
The Leafs goaltending duo of Campbell and Petr Mrazek have been so bad that speculation has the Leafs fishing for a goalie at the trade deadline, while the Capitals haven’t been able to buy goals as of late, so something has to give on Monday night.
Not sunny.#CapsFlyers pic.twitter.com/iw3v2JR5v3
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) February 26, 2022
Maple Leafs Head Coach, Sheldon Keefe, will make sure his players give a much better defensive effort than they did on Saturday, but I don’t see the Capitals scoring one goal or less for the third consecutive game and the Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals in six of their last seven games so take over six goals at -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pick: Over 6 (-120)