Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Odds & Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz celebrates after winning against Argentina’s Sebastian Baez during the ATP Next Gen semifinal tennis tournament in Milan, Italy, Friday, Nov. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)

The Next Gen Finals final will feature Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda
The match will take place late Saturday night in Milan, Italy (3 p.m. ET)
The 18-year-old Spaniard, three years younger than his American opponent, is the favorite

It feels appropriate (although it doesn’t always happen) that the two players undefeated in a round-robin meet in the final. And that’s the case with Carlos Alcaraz of Spain and Sebastian Korda of the U.S. – who also happen to be the two top seeds at the ATP Next Gen Finals.

As it happens, the two rising stars have never played before at any level, so there’s a lot on the line in their first meeting.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Odds

Player
Spread
Moneyline
Total

[1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)
-3.5 (-115)
-300
O 22.5 (-125)

[2] Sebastian Korda (USA)
+3.5 (-115)
+230
U 22.5 (-110)

Odds as of Nov. 12 at DraftKings

Only One Set Lost as Alcaraz Breezes

To the surprise of no one, the youngest player in the Next Gen Finals draw, and also the one with the highest ATP Tour ranking, has barely had to sweat in reaching the final.

Our finalists are ready 🙌

Here’s how @alcarazcarlos03 & @SebiKorda made their way to the @intesasanpaolo #NextGenATPFinals final! pic.twitter.com/VOuOwN512G

— Next Gen ATP Finals (@nextgenfinals) November 13, 2021

Alcaraz has won 12 of the 13 short-form sets he has played this week.

Alcaraz’s Undefeated Road to the Final

Round
Opponent
Score
Winner

RR
[7] Holger Rune (DEN)
4-3 (6), 4-2, 4-0
Alcaraz

RR
[5] Juan Manuel Cerundolo (ARG)
4-0, 4-1, 2-4, 4-3 (3)
Alcaraz

RR
[4] Brandon Nakashima (USA)
4-3, 4-1, 4-3 (4)
Alcaraz

SF
[6] Sebastian Baez (ARG)
4-2, 4-1, 4-2
Alcaraz

Korda Guts out Two Five-Setters En Route

In sharp contrast, the 21-year-old Korda has had to come back in two of his four matches so far.

Against crafty lefthander Hugo Gaston of France in his opener, Korda quickly went down two sets to none before coming back to win in five.

Korda’s Undefeated Road to the Final

Round
Opponent
Score
Winner

RR
[8] Hugo Gaston (FRA)
3-4 (2), 3-4 (6), 4-0, 4-3 (3), 4-0
Korda

RR
[6] Sebastian Baez (ARG)
4-3 (3), 4-2, 4-2
Korda

RR
[3] Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)
4-2, 4-3 (4), 4-2
Korda

SF
[4] Brandon Nakashima (USA)
4-3 (3), 2-4, 1-4, 4-2, 4-2
Korda

Korda found himself in some trouble again in the semifinal against fellow American Brandon Nakashima, who finished second to Alcaraz in the other pool group and earned a semifinal spot.

But Korda pulled that one out as well.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Head-to-Head

18 (May 5, 2003)
Age
21 (July 5, 2000)

El Palmar, Murcia, Spain
Birthplace
Bradenton, Fla.

6-1
Height
6-5

1
Career ATP Singles Titles
1

No. 32 (Nov. 8, 2021)
Career High Ranking
No. 38 (Oct. 18, 2021)

No. 32
Current Ranking
No. 39

$1,288,893
Career Prize Money
$1,276,993

31-17
2021 Won/Loss record
31-17

0
Career Head to Head
0

Three Years Apart, Similar Roads

Even though they are nearly three years apart, Alcaraz and Korda’s career arcs are nearly identical.

Before 2021, Alcaraz was a career 1-1 at the ATP Tour level. At 3-4, Korda hadn’t had much more experience.

Alcaraz was ranked No. 141 to start the season; he has moved up over 100 spots. Korda began at No. 119; he has moved up 70 spots.

Their 2021 prize money is nearly identical. Their won-loss records are exactly the same. And each has won his first ATP Tour singles title.

Alcaraz and Korda 2021 – By the Numbers

Category
Carlos Alcaraz
Sebastian Korda

Aces
119
232

Double Faults
101
118

First Serve %
63%
65%

% of Service Games Won
75%
80%

Second Serve Points Won
53%
50%

Saved Break Points %
58%
65%

First-Serve Return Points Won
33%
31%

Second-Serve Return Points Won
52%
52%

Break-Point Conversion Rate
43%
41%

Total Points Won
51%
51%

But the differences on the court are significant. The growing consensus is that few, if any players, hit the ball as hard as Alcaraz does despite his relatively average (by today’s standards) height.

He has shown an impressive and precocious willingness to move forward to finish points at the net.

On the other hand, Korda’s on-court identity remains a work in progress. His 6-5 stature gives him great leverage on the serve. And he moves beautifully despite his height.

But Alcaraz’s defense, as he’s displayed so many times, is peerless. It’s a game-changer.

2022 Australian Open Odds Tracker

Korda’s numbers on serve are better. He has nearly twice as many aces. His ratio of aces to double faults is far superior, and he holds serve much more often. He’s also much better at getting out of trouble when his opponent does create break points.

In the end, though, they’ve ended up at the same place at the end of the season.

So far this week, Korda has hit 30 aces and just five double faults, saving nearly 80 per cent of the break-point chances against him. He’ll have to keep up that level to have a shot.

Best Bet: Alcaraz in four sets (+275)

Author: wpadmin

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