Djokovic and Rublev start Green Group with wins
There were victories for Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev on day two of the ATP Finals, with Rublev getting a marginal underdog victory in straight sets over Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Djokovic, after a tricky opening set, got past Casper Ruud 7-6 6-2 to help us cover the game handicap. There’s a pretty decent chance, now, that Tsitsipas will have to defeat Djokovic in order to make the semi-finals on Saturday, making him a pretty big underdog now to make the latter stages.
Medvedev favourite over Zverev
Daniil Medvedev 1.574/7 vs Alexander Zverev 2.727/4: After narrowly getting past Hubert Hurkacz in his opener, Medvedev faces his main Red Group rival, Alexander Zverev, today in the early match which is scheduled to start at around 13:00 UK time.
Both players got opening day wins, with Zverev also making a positive start with a retirement win over Matteo Berrettini, but this is the real challenge for both players as the group favourites. Win and they are as good as through to the semi-finals, but a loss isn’t a disaster and a Thursday victory should be enough for the defeated player.
Medvedev has won their last four meetings, including a fortnight ago indoors in Paris (6-2 6-2) and that day, the Russian was a slight favourite at around the 1.855/6 mark. That day, I made him pretty decent value – my model made him 1.548/15 and ironically, that’s very similar to today’s price with the market having adjusted to what I consider to be a correct price. My model goes 1.511/2 on Medvedev today, and he is 1.574/7 on the Exchange.
This year on hard courts, Medvedev has won around 3% more points on return, with similar serve numbers, and given three of those four straight wins were indoors, the market line with Medvedev being a solid favourite looks about right.
Injury-doubt Berrettini underdog against Hurkacz
Matteo Berrettini 2.8815/8 vs Hubert Hurkacz 1.528/15: Hurkacz has impressed this year in what is something of a breakthrough season for the Pole, and in his first ATP Finals, he’s favourite in his second match against Berrettini, who was forced to withdraw injured with an abdominal problem against Alexander Zverev on Sunday.
Stats-wise, Berrettini has slightly better serve numbers but worse data on return on hard courts this year, so I’d have made Hurkacz a slight favourite even without those injury concerns on the Italian. The fact that he also has a major injury doubt also makes it clear that Hurkacz should be a solid favourite here too – essentially I agree that the market lines are correct here also.
This really shows how Hurkacz has improved since the summer. He was a 3.002/1 plus underdog against Berrettini in the Wimbledon semi-final and yet even without injury considerations he should be favourite here against the same opponent. I think that Hurkacz should be able to get his first ever ATP Finals victory at the second time of asking