Appleby’s dominance set to continue at Newmarket?

There are five meetings for punters to get stuck into today, including a flat meeting at Newmarket, where the two-year-olds are given their final chance to strut their stuff.

Navan and Kempton are the other two flat meetings, while Worcester and Fontwell will be your port of call for jumps racing.

Money Talk

Money Talk continues to highlight the Betfair Sportsbook big-money moves to keep you in the loop. This section highlights market moves between 1:00 am and 9:00 am.

15:15 Newmarket – Wind Your Neck in 10/3 into 5/2
16:45 Fontwell – Nessfield Blue 14/1 into 9/1
19:00 Kempton – Woodeton 11/2 into 4/1
19:30 Kempton – Wizzard D’Amour 7/1 into 9/2

The market says LAY!

Which horse is the Betfair Sportsbook market suggesting to Lay?

14:05 Newmarket – Noble Order 6/4 OUT 9/4

No market support this morning for Noble Order and plenty of his rivals have shortened up in the morning market.

Mark your card

The Betfair Sportsbook is paying extra places today!

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At Worcester in the 13:38 Fred & Mercy Rimell Memorial Handicap Chase, the market has predictably stuck those having very little chase experience towards the top of the market. However, the last three winners have had at least seven runs over fences. Statuario 12.011/1 is the only horse that fits the bill.

Trainer Paul Nichols has a 29% strike rate at Worcester. He saddles three horses today. 14:48 Onethreefivenotout 2.915/8, 15:23 Hugos New Horse 3.02/1, 15:58 Roque It 5.04/1

The Trixie pays £79.40 to a £1 (£4 total) stake.

At Kempton in the 19:00 Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes, trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey James Doyle will look to partner and win the race for the third consecutive year with Bay Of Honour 4.57/2.

Doyle seemingly shuns a clutch of second-string horses at Newmarket in favour of heading to Kempton today and has a strong book of six rides, including Lovely Breeze in the 20:00 Unibet Extra Place Offers Every Day Handicap.

Appleby out to confirm two-year-old dominance at Newmarket

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Newmarket’s race card today is all two-year-old races bar the 15:50 Devils Dyke Fillies’ Handicap, which is our feature race of the day.

Trainer Charlie Appleby saddles a clutch, including Al Nafir 1.84/5 – a full brother to the excellent Ghaiyyath in the 14:40 Home Of Racing Maiden Stakes.

Appleby won the 16:25 Let’s Talk About Race Webinar 10th Nov EBF Future Stayers Novice Stakes last year with Hurricane Lane, and this time around has Perseus Way 2.255/4 on what looks like an informative card.

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Horses for courses

This section highlights horses that have won twice or more at today’s tracks and could be in with a chance today.

14:13 Worcester – Coral – Has won here twice (67%)
15:05 Fontwell – Reallyradical – Has won here twice (40%)
15:50 Newmarket – Madame Tantzy – Has won here twice (50%)
19:30 Kempton – Vitaline – Has won here twice (40%)
19:30 Kempton – May Night – Has won here twice (67%
20:00 Kempton – Enduring – Has won here twice (67%)

Weighted to go well

“Weighted to go well” highlights horses running that are more than 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark.

There are no horses running 10lbs below their last winning handicap mark today.

Form Watch

This section highlights a trainer, owner or jockey who is in excellent current form and their runners or rides for the day.

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Charlie Appleby has been operating at a 44% strike rate in the last 14 days. He has five at Newmarket where he is profitable to follow £86 to a £1 level stake and one at Kempton where he has a 29% strike rate!

Furthest traveller

Today’s furthest traveller is trainer Jed O’Keefe. He makes the 197 mile journey from his base to Newmarket with his runner Rollajam 34.033/1 who makes his handicap debut at 17:00.

Race of the day

We head to Newmarket today for a fascinating Fillies’ Handicap at 15:50, where a field of ten head to post in a race that three and four-year-olds have dominated in the past nine years, with the former scoring in six.

Bashkirova heads the market, and she will look to retain her unbeaten two for two record on handicap debut off an opening handicap mark of 92.

She was imposing on debut at Nottingham and turned over an odds-on favourite and subsequent winner who is now rated 92. The rest of that form hasn’t worked out, but it was an eye-catching performance to come from the rear of the field in a steadily run race.

She then stuck to the task well and showed a different attribute at Newcastle when battling well to take the scalp of another subsequent winner.

She could be a pattern performer, but the market hasn’t missed her, and this opening handicap mark looks stiff, so she may well need to be to defy this rating.

State Occasion has been holding her form well this season and has looked steadily progressive, and she would likely have gotten off the mark at Ascot on her last attempt over 1m if granted a clear run.

She remains completely unexposed, and on the balance of her form she looks well handicapped off of this mark of 84.

She has been frustrating and may prove vulnerable to an improver but she is highly likely to give her running and can’t be written off.

From a price perspective, Country Pyle – a half-sister to the very smart Pyledriver – makes plenty of appeal on handicap debut off what looks a lenient opening mark of 78.

She has failed to see out ten furlongs as well as 12 furlongs in Maiden and Novice company on her four starts to date, but she has looked to have had the race wrapped up 100 yards from home on a couple of occasions.

The drop in trip at this stiff track could see her to best effect, and she has a smart turn of foot which will be an asset at this Newmarket track.

Timeform out in force at Kempton

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Timeform have plucked out their NAP, Next Best and Each-Way selections for the evening meeting over at Kempton.

Check out their best bets under the lights.

Read Timeform tips here.

Moore can score on progressive Evans horse at Newmarket

At Newmarket in the 15:15 British EBF Future Stayers Nursery Handicap, this looks like a good opportunity for Wind Your Neck In to score on handicap debut for David Evans off this fair opening handicap mark of 86.

The two-year-old impressed at Salisbury despite his jockey Ryan Moore having played the track bias on that occasion, but there was no getting away from the dominance of the performance, and the clock backed it up.

That didn’t come out of the blue either. He has been steadily progressive in all three runs to date and it’s highly likely he bumped into a useful one on his penultimate start.

He takes on Educator at the top of the market, who is not certain to stay this extra two furlongs at this stiff track on the evidence of his Haydock win last month.

He comes off much the best in this field on a time-figure basis and is open to further improvement with stamina built into the dam side if one searches deep enough.

Final Word

A good day out at Exeter yesterday despite the persistent fog but overall my seven-hour round trip was worth it to pick up snippets of information from connections.

Mick Pastor a real highlight despite playing up rotten in the pre-parade ring. He easily took care of his sole rival Sebastopol, and although he has picked up some fairly soft races this term, he looks like a real weapon to go to war with on a left-handed track when the ground is good.

Connections seemed fed-up with Sebastopol post-race, with expectations clearly high on his chase debut. It was a lacklustre effort, and after the race, they made it clear to me there were no excuses – his ceiling is not far away.

Soul Icon looks a fair way ahead of the handicapper, yet, as does An Tailluir. Both look worth keeping on side while the ground is quick.

Until tomorrow, be lucky!

Follow Daryl Carter on Twitter @DarylCarter7

Author: wpadmin

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